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Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis | Risk Score for Predicting Survival

Purpose: To estimate the survival for a patient with primary sclerosing cholangitis using the Multicenter risk score.

Description

A risk score can be used to predict survival in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis. This can aid in patient counseling and in making therapeutic decisions such as transplant timing. The study was done through a collaboration of the Mayo Clinic, John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford, New England Medical Center, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, and King's College Hospital in London.


 

Parameters:

(1) serum total bilirubin in mg/dL

(2) age in years

(3) histologic stage

(4) splenomegaly

Parameter

Finding

Points

histologic stage

I

1

 

II

2

 

III

3

 

IV

4

splenomegaly

absent

0

 

present

1

 

risk score =

= (0.535 * (LN(serum total bilirubin in mg/dL))) + (0.486 * (histologic stage)) + (0.041 * (age in years)) + (0.705 * (points for splenomegaly))

 

where:

• LN indicates natural logarithm (base e)

• An histologic stage is graded as the higher level (for example: stage 3-4 is scored as 4).

 

Interpretation

 

probability of surviving X years =

= S(X)^(EXP((risk score) – 3.326))

 

where:

• 3.326 is the risk score for the average patient in the data set

 

Survival in Years

S(t)

1

0.951

2

0.915

3

0.871

4

0.844

5

0.779

6

0.752

7

0.741

(from Table 5, page 1897)

 


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10