Yildirim developed models for predicting risk in a patient with a differentiated thyroid cancer. These can help identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive therapy and monitoring. The author is from Anakara, Turkey.
Parameters:
(1) diameter of the tumor in centimeters
(2) age of the patient in years
(3) angioinvasion
(4) distant metastases at presentation
(5) surgical resection
(6) use of adjuvant radioiodine
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
diameter of tumor in cm |
|
(cm) |
|
age of the patient |
<= 45 years of age |
0 |
|
|
> 45 years of age |
1 |
|
angioinvasion |
absent |
0 |
|
|
present |
1 |
|
distant metastases |
absent |
0 |
|
|
present |
1 |
|
surgical resection |
near total or total thyroidectomy |
1 |
|
|
other |
0 |
|
adjuvant radioiodine |
not used |
0 |
|
|
used |
1 |
pretreatment X =
= (0.2 * (tumor diameter in cm)) + (points for age) + (0.7 * (points for angioinvasion)) + (points for distant metastases)
pretreatment score =
= EXP(X)
probability of cancer-specific mortality based on pretreatment factors =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
|
Pretreatment Probability |
Risk Group |
|
<= 55% |
very low |
|
56 - 85% |
low |
|
86 - 95% |
high |
|
>= 96% |
very high |
posttreatment Y =
= (0.2 * (tumor diameter in cm)) + (0.8 * (points for age)) + (0.5 * (points for angioinvasion)) + (0.6 * (points for distant metastases)) - (0.9 * (points for surgical resection)) - (0.7 * (points for adjuvant radioiodine))
posttreatment score =
= EXP(Y)
probability of cancer-specific mortality based on posttreatment factors =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Y))
|
Posttreatment Probability |
Risk Group |
|
|
very low |
|
|
low |
|
|
high |
|
|
very high |
Specialty: Hematology Oncology, Surgery, general, Endocrinology
