Fernandes et al reported a preoperative score for predicting complications following gastrointestinal cancer surgery. The authors are from the Portuguese Oncology Institute of Porto in Portugal.
Patient selection: age >= 18 and preoperative assessment of patient undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery
Outcome: postoperative surgical complications
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) physiologic score of POSSUM(from 12 to 88)
(4) ACS NSQIP risk calculator for serious complications, presumably as a percent
Parameter
Finding
Points
age
-0.04 * (age)
sex
female
0
male
1.08
P-POSSUM
0.07 * (P-POSSUM)
ACS NSQIP
0.06 * (NSQIP)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters0 - 2.39
probability of surgical complications requiring care =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.81.
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