Preoperative Risk Recurrence Equations of Bauer et al for a Patient Undergoing Radical Prostatectomy

 

Patient selection: prostate cancer with clinical Stage 1 or 2

 

Parameters:

(1) sigmoidal transformation for the PSA (see Chapter 16)

(2) maximum preoperative Gleason score (worst)

(3) clinical tumor stage

(4) race

Parameter	Finding	Points
tumor stage	not that stage	0
	that stage	1
race	Black (Afro-American)	1
	other (Asian, Hispanic, White)	0

 

X for recurrence risk =

= (0.47 * (points for race)) + (0.14 * (sigmoidal transformation of the PSA)) + (0.13 * (maximum Gleason score)) + (1.03 if Stage 1c) + (1.55 if Stage 2b or 2c)

 

risk score for recurrence =

= EXP(X)

 

Risk Score for Recurrence	Risk for Recurrence
< 8.0	low
8.0 to 40.0	intermediate
> 40.0	high

 

Y for extracapsular extension at surgery =

= (0.18 * (points for race)) + (0.15 * (sigmoidal transformation of the PSA)) + (0.31 * (maximum Gleason score)) + (0.16 if Stage 1c) + (0.38 if Stage 2b or 2c) - 2.47

 

probability of extracapsular extension =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Y))

 

Probability of Extracapsular Extension	Risk for Extracapsular Extension
< 0.43	low
0.43 to 0.77	intermediate
> 0.77	high

 

NOTE: An online version of the algorithm is available at the Center for Prostate Disease Research (www.cpdr.org). In this version clinical stage T3 is included with T2b or T2c).