Gabriel et al reported a preoperative calculator for predicting survival of a patient with a resectable hepatocellular carcinoma. The authors are from the Mayo Clinic Jacksonville and Roswell Park Center Institute Buffalo.
Patient selection: resectable(not Stage 4) hepatocellular carcinoma
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) race
(4) tumor size in mm
(5) differentiation
(6) histologic type
(7) clinical stage
(8) resection
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.022 * (age)
sex
male
0
female
-0.24
race
Asian
-0.35
black
0.24
white
other
-0.39
tumor size
-0.0011 * (size)
differentiation
undifferentiated
0.12
poorly differentiated
0.48
moderately differentiated
0.20
well differentiated
histologic type
fibrolamellar
-0.14
sarcomatoid
1.26
clear cell
0.16
pleomorphic
0.97
combined HCC/ICC
0.18
HCC NOS
clinical stage
1
2
0.37
3
0.66
hepatectomy
partial
0.022 - (0.0029 * (age)) + (0.0029 * (tumor size))
formal
-0.032 - (0.002 * (age)) + (0.0019 * (tumor size))
extended
0.88 - (0.015 * (age)) + (0.0021 * (tumor size))
wedge
score =
= 0.99 * SUM(points for all of the parameters)
probability of 1-year overall survival =
= 0.96^(EXP(score))
probability of 3-year overall survival =
= 0.90^(EXP(score))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.68 for 1 year and 0.67 for 3 years.
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Specialty: Hematology Oncology
