Patient selection: systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis
Outcome: response to anakinra (an interleukin-1 inhibitor)
Criteria for complete clinical response:
(1) absence of fever
(2) physician global assessment (PGA) <= 1
(3) active joint count <= 1
(4) normal serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration
(5) >= 75% reduction in corticosteroid dose
Criteria for nonresponder: discontinuation of anakinra at 1 year for any reason other than complete remission
Predictors of complete cliinical response based on multivariate analysis:
(1) disease duration <= 3.9 years (odds ratio 6.8)
(2) active joint count <= 10 (odds ratio 8.3)
(3) serum ferritin concentration > 444 ng/mL (odds ratio 4.8)
(4) systemic manifestation score (SMS, range 0 to 10) > 3 (odds ratio 6.4)
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.83.
