Pinto et al reported predictors of mortality in patients with severe dengue in Brazil. These can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in Brazil.
Patient selection: severe dengue in Brazil
Predictors of mortality:
(1) age > 55 years (OR 5.0)
(2) gastrointestinal bleeding (OR 10.3)
(3) hematuria (OR 5.1)
(4) thrombocytopenia with platelet count < 20,000 per µL (OR 2.6)
Parameter
Finding
Points based on LN(OR)
age in years
<= 55 years
0
> 55 years
1.605
GI bleeding
no
0
yes
2.328
hematuria
no
0
yes
1.623
thrombocytopenia
no
0
yes
0.938
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 4.945
probability of mortality =
= 1/(1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.84.
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