Marquis et al identified risk factors for mortality in a patient with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. These can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Laval in Quebec.
Parameters:
(1) mid-thigh skeletal muscle cross sectional area in square cm
(2) observed FEV1 as percent of predicted
Parameter
Finding
Points
mid-thigh skeletal muscle cross sectional area
>= 70 square cm
0
< 70 square cm
1
FEV1
>= 50% of predicted
0
< 50% of predicted
1
total number of risk factors =
= SUM(points for the 2 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum number of risk factors: 0
• maximum number of risk factors: 2
• A patient with no risk factors had a good survival (about 95% at 5 years).
• A person with both risk factors had a survival at 5 years of about 35%.
• A person with 1 risk factor had a survival at 5 years of around 80%.
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