Lagergren et al reported predictors for severe post-operative reflux following surgery for cancer surgery. These can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Karolinska Insitutet, Imperial College London, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, and affiliated hospitalist.
Patient selection: surgery for cancer surgery
Outcome: severe reflux
Predictors:
(1) female sex (OR 2.2)
(2) preoperative reflux (OR 3.0)
(3) preoperative BMI >= 30 kg per square meter (OR 2.5)
Additional factors:
(1) younger age (OR 0.98)
(2) COPD (OR 2.4)
(3) ventricle substitute (OR 5.5; insertion of a ventricle tube; alternative colon or ileocolic segment)
The risk of severe reflux increases with the number of risk factors present.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.72.
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