Lea-Pereira et al reported a score for predicting morality for a patient in the hospital with an ischemic stroke who is being treated conservatively. The authors are from multiple institutions in Almeiria and Grandada, Spain.
Patient selection: ischemic stroke treated conservatively
Outcome: in-hospital mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) readmission
(4) ischemic heart disease
(5) hypertension
(6) diabetes
(7) atrial fibrillation
(8) dyslipidemia
(9) heart failure
(10) symptoms of posterior fossa infarction (ataxia, dysphagia, unilateral facial paralysis)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
<= 76 years
0
> 76 years
16
sex
male
0
female
4
readmission
no
0
yes
9
ischemic heart disease
no
0
yes
5
hypertension
no
0
yes
-5
diabetes
no
0
yes
1
atrial fibrillation
no
0
yes
7
dyslipidemia
no
0
yes
-7
heart failure
no
0
yes
6
symptoms of posterior fossa infarction
no
0
yes
14
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -12
• maximum score: 62
• The higher the score the greater the risk of mortality.
probability of death =
= (0.0001406 * ((score)^2)) + (0.002946 * (score)) + 0.02002
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.74.
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