Description

Zhang and Yang reported a model for predicting a prolonged pancreaticoduodenectomy. The authors are from Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College in China.


Patient selection: pancreaticoduodenectomy (Whipple procedure)

 

Prolonged: > 300 minutes

 

Parameters:

(1) body mass index (BMI) in kg per sq m

(2) blood type

(3) history of pancreatitis

(4) hypertension

(5) diabetes

(6) preoperative complication

(7) pylorus preservation

(8) blood loss

(9) vascular resection

 

points for BMI =

= (4.167 * (BMI)) - 58.333

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

blood type

1 (B+)

0

 

2 (O+)

18.7

 

3 (A+)

37.3

 

4 (AB+)

55.9

history of pancreatitis

no

43.2

 

yes

0

hypertension

no

0

 

yes

13.3

diabetes

no

0

 

yes

14.3

preop complications

no

0

 

yes

18.4

pylorus preservation

no

51.1

 

yes

0

blood loss

<= 500 mL

0

 

> 500

67.3

vascular resection

no

0

 

yes

20.3

 

where:

• The "+" with the blood type is assumed to reflect status of ABO antigen and not be related to RhD status.

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 383.8

 

value of X =

= (0.0231 * (score)) - 4.913

 

percentage of patients with prolonged surgery =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.79.


To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.