Xie et al reported a model for predicting early neurological deterioration (END) in a patient with an acute ischemic stroke. This can help to identify a patient at risk for worsening of the neurologic status early in the course. The authors are from Shenzhen University, Guangzhou Medical University, Anhui Medical University and affiliated hospitals in China.
Patient selection: acute ischemic stroke
Parameters:
(1) initial NIHSS, from 0 to 35
(2) middle cerebral artery (MCA) stenosis
(3) percent stenosis of the carotid artery
points for NIHSS score =
= 2.857 * (NIHSS)
Parameter
Fiinding
Points
MCA stenosis
no
0
yes
19
carotid artery stenosis
< 50%
0
>= 50%
13.2
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 132.2
• The higher the score the greater the risk of early neurological deterioration.
value of X =
= (0.08711 * (score)) - 3.388
probability of early neurological deterioration (END) =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.87.
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