Vallapureddy et al reported a predictive model for leukemic transformation in a patient with primary myelofibrosis. The authors are from the Mayo Clinic.
Patent selection: primary myelofibrosis
Outcome: leukemia-free survival
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex-adjusted anemia
(3) circulating blasts in percent
(4) IDH1 mutations
(5) SRSF2 mutations
(6) ASXL1 mutations
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
<= 70 years
0
> 70 years
1
sex-adjusted anemia
none or mild
0
moderate or severe
1
circulating blasts
< 3%
0
>= 3%
2
IDH1 mutations
no
0
yes
3
SRSF2 mutations
no
0
yes
2
ASXL1 mutations
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 10
Total Score
Risk Group
Leukemia Transformation
0 or 1
low
8%
2 to 6
intermediate
17%
7 to 10
high
57%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.83.
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