Tunruttanakul et al reported a model for predicting common bile duct stones in a patient with possible choledocholithiasis. The authors are from Sawanpracharak Hospital, Chiang Mai University and Thammasat University in Thailand.
Patient selection: adult with suspected choledocholithiasis
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) pancreatitis
(3) cholangitis
(4) cirrhosis
(5) serum alkaline phosphatase in U/L
(6) serum total bilirubin in mg/dL
(7) diameter of common bile duct (CBD) in mm
(8) stone detected in common bile duct (CBD)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
<= 55 years
0
> 55 years
3.5
pancreatitis
no
0
yes
-3.5
cholangitis
no
0
yes
2
cirrhosis
no
0
yes
-5.5
serum alkaline phosphatase
< 125 U/L
0
125 to 250 U/L
1
> 250 U/L
6.5
serum total bilirubin
<= 4 mg/dL
0
> 4 mg/dL
5.5
common bile duct
<= 6 mm
0
> 6 mm
5.5
stones in CBD
no
0
yes
5.5
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -9
• maximum score: 28.5
Total Score
Risk Category
<= 5
low
5.5 to 14.5
intermediate
>= 15
high
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.80.
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