Liu et al reported a risk prediction model for readmission for a patient who has just undergone coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The authors are from multiple institutions in Wuhan, China.
Patient selection: coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in China
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) age in years
(3) type of health insurance
(4) diabetes mellitus
(5) hypertension level
(6) congenital heart disease
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex
female
0.9
male
0
age in years
< 65
0
>= 65
0.786
type of insurance
private
1.443
other
0
diabetes
no
0
yes
0.855
hypertension
none or level 1
0
level 2
0.845
level 3
-0.604
congenital heart disease
no
0
yes
1.935
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 4.582
probability of readmission =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.87.
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