Imperiale et al reported a predictive model for advanced colorectal cancer in an asymptomatic adult. This can help in the making decisions for cancer screening. The authors are from Indiana University, Richard L. Roudebush VA Medical Center, the RegenstriefInstitute, and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
NOTE: This model is different than the score of Imperiale et al from 2015.
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) gender
(3) marital status
(4) education level
(5) smoking
(6) significant ethanol intake
(7) NSAID use
(8) metabolic syndrome
(9) red meat servings per week
(10) regular activity for 10+ years
(11) moderate activity for the past 12 months
(12) vigorous activity (>= 1 hour per week) for the past 12 months
(13) aspirin use
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
age |
50 to 54 years |
0 |
|
|
55 to 59 years |
0.8 |
|
|
60 to 64 years |
1.6 |
|
|
65 to 69 years |
2.4 |
|
|
70 to 75 years |
3.2 |
|
|
>= 75 years |
4 |
|
gender |
woman |
0 |
|
|
man |
3 |
|
marital status |
living alone |
0 |
|
|
married or cohabitating |
-3 |
|
education |
college graduate |
-1 |
|
|
other |
0 |
|
smoking |
>= 30 pack years |
3 |
|
|
other |
0 |
|
ethanol use |
male and >= 11 drinks/wk |
1 |
|
|
female and >=6 drinks/wk |
1 |
|
|
other |
0 |
|
NSAID use |
daily use for >= 1 year |
-4 |
|
|
other |
0 |
|
metabolic syndrome |
absent |
0 |
|
|
present |
1 |
|
red meat servings |
0 per week |
0 |
|
|
1 per week |
1 |
|
|
2 per week |
2 |
|
|
3 per week |
3 |
|
|
4 per week |
4 |
|
|
5 per week |
5 |
|
|
6 per week |
6 |
|
|
7 per week |
7 |
|
|
8 per week |
8 |
|
|
>= 9 per week |
9 |
|
regular activity |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
-1 |
|
moderate activity |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
-2 |
|
vigorous activity |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
-2 |
|
aspirin use |
daily for >= 1 year |
-2 |
|
|
other |
0 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -15 (Table 4 references -13)
• maximum score: 21
|
Score |
Risk Group |
Advanced Neoplasia |
|
<= -5 |
low |
0 to 3% |
|
-4 to 2 |
intermediate |
4-12% |
|
>= 3 |
high |
>= 18% |
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.77. This seems high considering the estimates for advanced neoplasia
Specialty: Hematology Oncology
