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Predictive Model of Guo et al for a Patient with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Description

Guo et al developed a simple predictive model for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Sun Yat-sen University, Zhejiang Cancer Center Hospital and the State Key Laborotory of Oncology in Southern China.

 


 

Patient selection: nasopharyngeal carcinoma

 

Parameters:

(1) comorbidity measured with the ACE-27

(2) age of the patient in years

(3) TNM stage

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

ACE-27

Grade 0 or 1

0

 

Grade 2 or 3

1

age

< 50 years of age

0

 

>= 50 years of age

1

TNM stage

Stage I

0

 

Stage II

3

 

Stage III

4

 

Stage IV

5

 

where:

• ACE-27 Grade 2 is considered moderate comorbidity and is reached when there is at least 1 item that is Grade 2.

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 7

• The higher the score the worse the prognosis.

 

Total Score

Group

Overall Survival

0 or 1

1

100%

2, 3 or 4

2

89%

5

3

68-74%

6 or 7

4

44-54%

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.71-0.73.

 


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