Chang et al reported a model for 5-year mortality in an older adult with diabetes. The authors are from multiple institutions in Taiwan.
Patient selection: diabetic >= 65 years of age
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) smoking status
(4) body mass index (BMI) in kg per sq meter
(5) fasting blood glucose in mg/dL
(6) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(7) diastolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(9) serum total cholesterol in mg/dL
(10) hemoglobin in g/dL
(11) serum albumin in g/dL
(12) eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meter
(13) WBC count per microliter
(14) serum GPT in U/L
(15) uric acid in mg/dL
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
age in years |
65 to 69 |
0 |
|
70 to 74 |
1 |
|
75 to 79 |
2 |
|
80 to 84 |
3 |
|
85 to 89 |
4 |
|
90 to 99 |
5 |
sex |
female |
0 |
|
male |
2 |
smoking status |
never |
0 |
|
ever |
1 |
BMI |
< 18.5 |
3 |
|
18.5 to 21.9 |
2 |
|
22 to 23.9 |
1 |
|
>= 24 |
0 |
fasting blood glucose |
< 70 mg/dL |
1 |
|
70 to 139 mg/dL |
0 |
|
140 to 199 mg/dL |
1 |
|
>= 200 mg/dL |
2 |
systolic blood glucose |
< 110 mm Hg |
1 |
|
>=110 mm Hg |
0 |
diastolic blood pressure |
< 80 mm Hg |
0 |
|
>= 80 mm Hg |
1 |
serum total cholesterol |
< 150 mg/dL |
1 |
|
150 to 239 |
0 |
|
>= 240 mg/dL |
1 |
hemoglobin |
< 12 g/dL |
3 |
|
12 to 13.9 g/dL |
1 |
|
>= 14 g/dL |
0 |
serum albumin |
< 3.5 g/dL |
4 |
|
3.5 to 3.9 g/dL |
2 |
|
>= 4.0 g/dL |
0 |
eGFR |
>=100 mL/min/1,73 sq m |
1 |
|
60 to 99 |
0 |
|
30 to 59 |
1 |
|
< 30 mL/min per 1.73 sq m |
2 |
WBC |
< 8,200 per µL |
0 |
|
8,200 to 9,999 per µL |
1 |
|
>= 10,000 per µL |
2 |
serum GPT |
< 40 U/L |
0 |
|
40 to 119 U/L |
1 |
|
>= 120 U/L |
2 |
uric acid |
< 3.5 mg/dL |
1 |
|
3.5 to 6.9 mg/dL |
0 |
|
>= 7.0 mg/dL |
1 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 30
value of X =
= (0.07 * (67 + (5 * (score)))) - 6.2926
risk of 5-year mortality =
= 1 - (0.8791^(EXP(X)))
Performance:
• The C-index for the developmental cohort was 0.74 and for the external validation cohort was 0.69.
Specialty: Endocrinology