Milosevic et al reported a clinical prediction rule for the risk of falls for a nursing home resident. This can help to identify a patient who may require an intervention. The authors are from multiple institutions in The Netherlands.
Patient selection: nursing home resident, most >- 65 years of age
Parameters for 5 days prior to reference day:
(1) age in years
(2) sex (female 2, male 1)
(3) antidementia drug (ATC code N06D)
(4) antidepressant (ATC code N06A)
(5) antiepileptic (ATC code N03A)
(6) antipsychotic (ATC code N05A)
(7) hypnotic or sedative (ATC code NO5C)
(8) urological drug (ATC code G04)
(9) opioid (ATC code N02A)
(10) anxiolytic (ATC code N05B)
points for age =
= (0.0460 * ((age) - 82.52)) - (0.0016 * (((age) - 82.52)^2))
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
sex
|
male
|
-0.6802
|
|
|
female
|
-1.3604
|
|
antidementia
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1.6442
|
|
antidepressant
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.2664
|
|
antiepileptic
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
-0.4763
|
|
antipsychotic
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.4267
|
|
hypnotic or sedative
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.2368
|
|
urological drug
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.0001
|
|
opioid
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
-0.3780
|
|
anxiolytic
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.2927
|
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 0.7799
probability for fall =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.60.
