Description

Legouis et al reported a model for predicting the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) after cardiac surgery. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management or who may benefit from an alternative management strategy. The authors are from multiple institutions in France.


Patient: cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass

 

Outcome: CKD at 1 year after surgery

 

Parameters:

(1) preoperative eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meters

(2) age in years

(3) type of surgery

(4) aortic clamping time in minutes

(5) postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI)

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

preoperative eGFR

>= 80

0

 

< 80

1

age

<= 65 years

0

 

> 65 years

1

type of surgery

transplantation

2

 

aortic surgery

2

 

other

0

aortic clamping time

<= 50 minutes

0

 

> 50 minutes

1

postoperative AKI

none

0

 

stage 1

1

 

stage 2 or 3

2

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 7

• The higher the score the greater the risk of developing CKD.

 

Total Score

Predicted Risk

0

3%

1

7%

2

15%

3

33%

4

55%

5

72%

6

87%

7

97%

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.81 in the derivation and 0.79 in the validation cohorts.


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