Prediction Scheme of Gamel et al for Predicting Survival in a Patient with Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma

Description

Gamel et al developed a scheme for predicting clinical outcome for patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma. This can help counsel patients about relative survival, which can help in making decisions about management. The authors are from the University of Louisville and Duke University.

Parameters:

(1) ulceration

(2) location (extremity vs nonextremity)

(3) gender

(4) thickness in mm (with thickness intervals in form 1.00 to 1.99, etc.)

ulceration	location	gender	Group
none	extremity	female	A
none	extremity	male	B
none	nonextremity	female	C
none	nonextremity	male	D
present	extremity	female	E
present	extremity	male	F
present	nonextremity	female	G
present	nonextremity	male	H

NOTE: The thickness data in Table 4 gives single values (0.5, 1.0, 2.0, etc.) yet Figure 1 shows thickness intervals. I have implemented the table below assuming that intervals can be used. A weakness with this approach is that there is no representation for the range of 0 to 0.49 mm. Alternative approaches would be (a) change the intervals to 0- 0.50, 0.51-1.00, etc.) or (b) round the actual thickness to the nearest thickness unit.

Thickness in mm	Subgroup
0.50 – 0.99	1
1.00 – 1.99	2
2.00 – 2.99	3
3.00 – 3.99	4
4.00 – 5.99	5
6.00 – 7.99	6
>= 8.00	7

Patient	Percent Cured	Tumor Related Median Survival in Years	Percent 5 Year Survival	Percent 10 Year Survival	Percent 15 Year Survival
A1	80.8	10.0	96	90	87
A2	74.6	8.9	94	86	81
A3	63.8	7.5	89	77	71
A4	55.1	6.7	83	69	63
A5	48.1	6.1	79	63	56
A6	37.8	5.3	70	52	45
A7	30.7	4.8	64	44	37
B1	75.1	10.0	95	88	83
B2	67.8	8.9	92	82	76
B3	55.8	7.5	86	72	65
B4	46.8	6.7	80	64	56
B5	40.0	6.1	75	57	49
B6	30.4	5.3	67	46	38
B7	24.1	4.8	60	39	31
C1	72.7	8.1	92	84	79
C2	65.0	7.2	88	77	72
C3	52.7	6.1	81	66	60
C4	43.7	5.4	74	57	50
C5	37.0	4.9	68	50	43
C6	27.8	4.3	59	39	33
C7	21.9	3.8	52	32	26
D1	65.7	8.1	90	79	74
D2	57.1	7.2	86	72	65
D3	44.5	6.1	77	60	53
D4	35.8	5.4	70	51	43
D5	29.7	4.9	64	44	36
D6	21.6	4.3	55	34	27
D7	16.8	3.8	48	28	21
E1	80.8	6.9	93	87	84
E2	74.6	6.2	90	82	78
E3	63.8	5.2	83	72	68
E4	55.1	4.6	76	63	59
E5	48.1	4.2	70	56	52
E6	37.8	3.7	60	45	41
E7	30.7	3.3	52	37	33
F1	75.1	6.9	91	83	80
F2	67.8	6.2	87	77	73
F3	55.8	5.2	79	66	61
F4	46.8	4.6	71	57	51
F5	40.0	4.2	65	49	44
F6	30.4	3.7	55	39	34
F7	24.1	3.3	48	32	27
G1	72.7	5.6	88	80	76
G2	65.0	5.0	82	72	68
G3	52.7	4.2	73	60	56
G4	43.7	3.7	64	51	47
G5	37.0	3.4	58	44	40
G6	27.8	3.0	47	33	30
G7	21.9	2.7	40	27	24
H1	65.7	5.6	85	74	70
H2	57.1	5.0	78	66	61
H3	44.5	4.2	8	53	48
H4	35.8	3.7	59	44	39
H5	29.7	3.4	53	37	33
H6	21.6	3.0	43	28	24
H7	16.8	2.7	36	22	19

from Table 4, page 1290-1291

where:

• The years of survival in column 3 involves those patients who have tumor recurrence or progression. The percent survivals in columns 4 to 6 assumes all patients (including those cured).

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Prediction Scheme of Gamel et al for Predicting Survival in a Patient with Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma

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