Prediction Scheme of Gamel et al for Predicting Conditional Probability of Cure at Followup in a Patient with Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma

Description

Gamel et al developed a scheme for predicting the probability of cure for patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma if they are recurrence free at followup. This can help counsel patients about relative survival, which can help in making decisions about management. The authors are from the University of Louisville and Duke University.

Parameters:

(1) ulceration

(2) location (extremity vs nonextremity)

(3) gender

(4) thickness in mm (with thickness intervals in form 1.00 to 1.99, etc.)

ulceration	location	gender	Group
none	extremity	female	A
none	extremity	male	B
none	nonextremity	female	C
none	nonextremity	male	D
present	extremity	female	E
present	extremity	male	F
present	nonextremity	female	G
present	nonextremity	male	H

NOTE: The thickness data in Table 4 gives single values (0.5, 1.0, 2.0, etc.) yet Figure 1 shows thickness intervals. I have implemented the table below assuming that intervals can be used. A weakness with this approach is that there is no representation for the range of 0 to 0.49 mm. Alternative approaches would be (a) change the intervals to 0- 0.50, 0.51-1.00, etc.) or (b) round the actual thickness to the nearest thickness unit.

Thickness in mm	Subgroup
0.50 – 0.99	1
1.00 – 1.99	2
2.00 – 2.99	3
3.00 – 3.99	4
4.00 – 5.99	5
6.00 – 7.99	6
>= 8.00	7

Percent Cured if Cancer Free at Followup

Patient	at 5 Years	at 10 Years	at 15 Years
A1	84	89	93
A2	80	87	92
A3	72	83	89
A4	66	79	88
A5	61	77	86
A6	54	73	85
A7	48	70	83
B1	79	86	90
B2	74	83	89
B3	65	77	86
B4	58	74	84
B5	53	70	82
B6	45	66	80
B7	40	62	78
C1	79	87	92
C2	74	84	91
C3	65	80	89
C4	59	77	87
C5	54	74	86
C6	47	71	84
C7	43	68	83
D1	73	83	89
D2	67	79	87
D3	58	74	85
D4	51	70	83
D5	46	68	82
D6	39	63	80
D7	35	60	78
E1	87	93	96
E2	83	91	95
E3	77	89	94
E4	73	87	94
E5	69	86	93
E6	63	84	92
E7	59	82	92
F1	82	90	94
F2	78	88	93
F3	71	85	92
F4	66	83	91
F5	61	81	91
F6	55	78	90
F7	50	77	89
G1	83	91	96
G2	79	90	95
G3	73	88	94
G4	68	86	94
G5	64	85	93
G6	59	83	93
G7	55	82	93
H1	79	88	94
H2	73	87	93
H3	66	84	92
H4	60	82	92
H5	56	80	91
H6	51	78	91
H7	47	77	90

from Table 4, page 1290-1291

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Patient	at 5 Years	at 10 Years	at 15 Years
A1	84	89	93
A2	80	87	92
A3	72	83	89
A4	66	79	88
A5	61	77	86
A6	54	73	85
A7	48	70	83
B1	79	86	90
B2	74	83	89
B3	65	77	86
B4	58	74	84
B5	53	70	82
B6	45	66	80
B7	40	62	78
C1	79	87	92
C2	74	84	91
C3	65	80	89
C4	59	77	87
C5	54	74	86
C6	47	71	84
C7	43	68	83
D1	73	83	89
D2	67	79	87
D3	58	74	85
D4	51	70	83
D5	46	68	82
D6	39	63	80
D7	35	60	78
E1	87	93	96
E2	83	91	95
E3	77	89	94
E4	73	87	94
E5	69	86	93
E6	63	84	92
E7	59	82	92
F1	82	90	94
F2	78	88	93
F3	71	85	92
F4	66	83	91
F5	61	81	91
F6	55	78	90
F7	50	77	89
G1	83	91	96
G2	79	90	95
G3	73	88	94
G4	68	86	94
G5	64	85	93
G6	59	83	93
G7	55	82	93
H1	79	88	94
H2	73	87	93
H3	66	84	92
H4	60	82	92
H5	56	80	91
H6	51	78	91
H7	47	77	90

Patient	at 5 Years	at 10 Years	at 15 Years
A1	84	89	93
A2	80	87	92
A3	72	83	89
A4	66	79	88
A5	61	77	86
A6	54	73	85
A7	48	70	83
B1	79	86	90
B2	74	83	89
B3	65	77	86
B4	58	74	84
B5	53	70	82
B6	45	66	80
B7	40	62	78
C1	79	87	92
C2	74	84	91
C3	65	80	89
C4	59	77	87
C5	54	74	86
C6	47	71	84
C7	43	68	83
D1	73	83	89
D2	67	79	87
D3	58	74	85
D4	51	70	83
D5	46	68	82
D6	39	63	80
D7	35	60	78
E1	87	93	96
E2	83	91	95
E3	77	89	94
E4	73	87	94
E5	69	86	93
E6	63	84	92
E7	59	82	92
F1	82	90	94
F2	78	88	93
F3	71	85	92
F4	66	83	91
F5	61	81	91
F6	55	78	90
F7	50	77	89
G1	83	91	96
G2	79	90	95
G3	73	88	94
G4	68	86	94
G5	64	85	93
G6	59	83	93
G7	55	82	93
H1	79	88	94
H2	73	87	93
H3	66	84	92
H4	60	82	92
H5	56	80	91
H6	51	78	91
H7	47	77	90

Prediction Scheme of Gamel et al for Predicting Conditional Probability of Cure at Followup in a Patient with Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma

Description

Specialty

Patient	at 5 Years	at 10 Years	at 15 Years
A1	84	89	93
A2	80	87	92
A3	72	83	89
A4	66	79	88
A5	61	77	86
A6	54	73	85
A7	48	70	83
B1	79	86	90
B2	74	83	89
B3	65	77	86
B4	58	74	84
B5	53	70	82
B6	45	66	80
B7	40	62	78
C1	79	87	92
C2	74	84	91
C3	65	80	89
C4	59	77	87
C5	54	74	86
C6	47	71	84
C7	43	68	83
D1	73	83	89
D2	67	79	87
D3	58	74	85
D4	51	70	83
D5	46	68	82
D6	39	63	80
D7	35	60	78
E1	87	93	96
E2	83	91	95
E3	77	89	94
E4	73	87	94
E5	69	86	93
E6	63	84	92
E7	59	82	92
F1	82	90	94
F2	78	88	93
F3	71	85	92
F4	66	83	91
F5	61	81	91
F6	55	78	90
F7	50	77	89
G1	83	91	96
G2	79	90	95
G3	73	88	94
G4	68	86	94
G5	64	85	93
G6	59	83	93
G7	55	82	93
H1	79	88	94
H2	73	87	93
H3	66	84	92
H4	60	82	92
H5	56	80	91
H6	51	78	91
H7	47	77	90