Gamel et al developed a scheme for predicting the probability of cure for patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma if they are recurrence free at followup. This can help counsel patients about relative survival, which can help in making decisions about management. The authors are from the University of Louisville and Duke University.
Parameters:
(1) ulceration
(2) location (extremity vs nonextremity)
(3) gender
(4) thickness in mm (with thickness intervals in form 1.00 to 1.99, etc.)
ulceration |
location |
gender |
Group |
---|---|---|---|
none |
extremity |
female |
A |
none |
extremity |
male |
B |
none |
nonextremity |
female |
C |
none |
nonextremity |
male |
D |
present |
extremity |
female |
E |
present |
extremity |
male |
F |
present |
nonextremity |
female |
G |
present |
nonextremity |
male |
H |
NOTE: The thickness data in Table 4 gives single values (0.5, 1.0, 2.0, etc.) yet Figure 1 shows thickness intervals. I have implemented the table below assuming that intervals can be used. A weakness with this approach is that there is no representation for the range of 0 to 0.49 mm. Alternative approaches would be (a) change the intervals to 0- 0.50, 0.51-1.00, etc.) or (b) round the actual thickness to the nearest thickness unit.
Thickness in mm |
Subgroup |
---|---|
0.50 – 0.99 |
1 |
1.00 – 1.99 |
2 |
2.00 – 2.99 |
3 |
3.00 – 3.99 |
4 |
4.00 – 5.99 |
5 |
6.00 – 7.99 |
6 |
>= 8.00 |
7 |
Percent Cured if Cancer Free at Followup
Patient |
at 5 Years |
at 10 Years |
at 15 Years |
---|---|---|---|
A1 |
84 |
89 |
93 |
A2 |
80 |
87 |
92 |
A3 |
72 |
83 |
89 |
A4 |
66 |
79 |
88 |
A5 |
61 |
77 |
86 |
A6 |
54 |
73 |
85 |
A7 |
48 |
70 |
83 |
B1 |
79 |
86 |
90 |
B2 |
74 |
83 |
89 |
B3 |
65 |
77 |
86 |
B4 |
58 |
74 |
84 |
B5 |
53 |
70 |
82 |
B6 |
45 |
66 |
80 |
B7 |
40 |
62 |
78 |
C1 |
79 |
87 |
92 |
C2 |
74 |
84 |
91 |
C3 |
65 |
80 |
89 |
C4 |
59 |
77 |
87 |
C5 |
54 |
74 |
86 |
C6 |
47 |
71 |
84 |
C7 |
43 |
68 |
83 |
D1 |
73 |
83 |
89 |
D2 |
67 |
79 |
87 |
D3 |
58 |
74 |
85 |
D4 |
51 |
70 |
83 |
D5 |
46 |
68 |
82 |
D6 |
39 |
63 |
80 |
D7 |
35 |
60 |
78 |
E1 |
87 |
93 |
96 |
E2 |
83 |
91 |
95 |
E3 |
77 |
89 |
94 |
E4 |
73 |
87 |
94 |
E5 |
69 |
86 |
93 |
E6 |
63 |
84 |
92 |
E7 |
59 |
82 |
92 |
F1 |
82 |
90 |
94 |
F2 |
78 |
88 |
93 |
F3 |
71 |
85 |
92 |
F4 |
66 |
83 |
91 |
F5 |
61 |
81 |
91 |
F6 |
55 |
78 |
90 |
F7 |
50 |
77 |
89 |
G1 |
83 |
91 |
96 |
G2 |
79 |
90 |
95 |
G3 |
73 |
88 |
94 |
G4 |
68 |
86 |
94 |
G5 |
64 |
85 |
93 |
G6 |
59 |
83 |
93 |
G7 |
55 |
82 |
93 |
H1 |
79 |
88 |
94 |
H2 |
73 |
87 |
93 |
H3 |
66 |
84 |
92 |
H4 |
60 |
82 |
92 |
H5 |
56 |
80 |
91 |
H6 |
51 |
78 |
91 |
H7 |
47 |
77 |
90 |
from Table 4, page 1290-1291
Specialty: Hematology Oncology, Surgery, general, Dermatology