Padwal et al developed a rule for predicting all-cause mortality for an obese patient eligible for bariatric surgery. The authors are from the University of Alberta, the Alberta Diabetes Institute, and Royal Alexandra Hospital in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Patient selection: adult eligible for bariatric surgery, aged 18 to 65 years
Outcome: all-cause 10-year mortality
Parameter:
(1) age in years
(2) gender
(3) current smoker
(4) type 2 diabetes mellitus
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
<(age) – 18>
gender
female
0
male
5
current smoker
no
0
yes
6
Type 2 diabetes mellitus
no
0
yes
10
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 88
• The higher the score the greater the 10-year mortality.
Score
Risk 10-Year Mortality
< 20
0.2%
20 to 39
0.9%
40 to 59
2%
>= 60
5.2%
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