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Prediction Rule of Kanaya et al for Development of Diabetes in an Older Adult

Purpose: To identify an adult at risk for developing diabetes using the prediction rule of Kanaya et al.

Description

Kanaya et al developed a rule for predicting the risk of an older adult developing diabetes. This can help identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of California San Francisco, the University of Tennessee, the University of Pittsburgh, the University of California San Diego and NIH.


Patient selection:

(1) age 67 +/- 11 years (will use mean minus 2 SD or 45 years as minimum age)

(2) exclusions: diabetes or fasting plasma glucose >= 126 mg/dL

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) gender

(3) serum triglycerides

(4) fasting plasma glucose

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

< 70 years of age

0

 

>= 70 years

2

gender

male

0

 

female

1

triglycerides

< 150 mg/dL

0

 

>= 150 mg/dL

1

fasting plasma glucose

< 95 mg/dL

0

 

95 - 104 mg/dL

1

 

105 - 115 mg/dL

2

 

116 - 125 mg/dL

3

 

where:

• A fasting glucose >= 126 mg/dL indicates diabetes.

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 7

• The higher the score the greater the risk of diabetes.

 

Total Score

Likelihood Ratio for Diabetes

0

0.2

1

0.4

2

0.7

3

1.0

4

1.9

5

4

6

9

7

infinite (100% risk)

 

Performance:

• The total score performed comparably to the 2 hour post challenge plasma glucose.


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10