Prediction of Postoperative Pneumonia Risk Calculator

Description

Gupta et al predicted the risk of postoperative pneumonia using a risk calculator using data from the 2007 NSQIP data set. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from William S. Middleton Memorial Veterans Hospital, University of Wisconsin, Creighton University, University of Pittsburgh and VA Nebraska and Western Iowa Health Care System.

Patient selection: patient undergoing surgery

Parameters:

(1) age

(2) COPD

(3) smoking within the past year

(4) functional status

(5) ASA status

(6) preoperative SIRS or sepsis

(7) type of operation

Parameter	Finding	Beta-Coefficient
age		0.0144*(age)
COPD	no	-0.4553
	yes	0
smoking	no	-0.4306
	yes	0
functional status	independent	0
	partially dependent	0.7653
	totally dependent	0.9400
ASA status	ASA 1	-3.0225
	ASA 2	-1.6057
	ASA 3	-0.4915
	ASA 4	0.0123
	ASA 5	0
preoperative SIRS/sepsis	none	-0.7641
	SIRS	0
	sepsis	-0.0842
	septic shock	0.1048

Type of Surgery	Beta-Coefficient
anorectal	-0.8470
aortic	0.7178
bariatric	-0.6282
brain	0.6841
breast	-2.3318
cardiac	0.1382
ENT	-0.3665
foregut	1.0660
hepatopancreatobiliary	1.0660
hernia	0
gallbladder	-0.3951
adrenal gland	-0.3951
appendix	-0.3951
spleen	-0.3951
intestinal	0.6169
neck	-0.0872
OB-Gyn	-0.4101
orthopedic	-0.5415
other abdominal	0.4021
peripheral vascular	-0.4519
skin	-0.5075
spine	-0.5672
thoracic	0.8901
vein	-1.476
urology	0.1076

X =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 2.8977

probability of postoperative pneumonia =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.86.

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Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10

Prediction of Postoperative Pneumonia Risk Calculator

Purpose: To predict the risk of postoperative pneumonia using the risk calculator of Gupta et al.

Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10