Lim et al developed several models for predicting end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in adults from a low-risk general population. Two models (Model 2 and 4-variable KFRE) were reported. The authors are from Singapore General Hospital, Singapore National Eye Centre, Duke-NUS Medical School Singapore and the National University of Singapore.
Patient selection: multi-ethnic Asian adults with eGFR < 60 mL/min per 1.73 square meters (CKD)
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) in mg/g
(3) eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meters
(4) age in years
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex
female
0.133 * (-0.467)
male
0.133 * (1 - 0.467)
UACR
0.536 * ((LN(UACR) - 4.016)
eGFR
-0.382 * (((eGFR)/5) - 15.19)
age
-0.374 * ((age)/10) - 6.24)
where:
• The coefficients are based on LN(HR) in Table 3.
• The equation for sex is 0.133 * ((male) - 0.467). It is assumed that male = 1 and female = 0.
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
probability of end-stage renal failure within 5 years by Model 2 =
= 1 - (0.998 ^ (EXP(X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.933.
To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.
