O'Connor et al developed a multivariate prediction model for in-hospital mortality following a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). This can help identify patients at greater risk prior to the procedure. The author are from multiple hospitals in New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts.
Parameters:
(1) age of the patient
(2) treatment for acute myocardial infarction (AMI)
(3) cardiogenic shock
(4) priority of the procedure
(5) left ventricular ejection fraction
(6) serum creatinine level
(7) peripheral vascular disease (cerebrovascular, lower extremities, other)
(8) congestive heart failure (CHF)
(9) preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP)
(9) most severe type of lesion being treated (A, B or C)
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|---|---|---|
|
age of the patient |
< 50 years of age |
0 |
|
|
50 - 59 |
-0.0744 |
|
|
60 - 69 |
0.4881 |
|
|
70 - 79 |
1.1987 |
|
|
>= 80 |
1.3147 |
|
treatment for AMI |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
0.6142 |
|
cardiogenic shock |
absent |
0 |
|
|
present |
1.8087 |
|
priority |
normal |
0 |
|
|
urgent |
0.7853 |
|
|
emergent |
2.0424 |
|
left ventricular ejection fraction |
>= 60% |
0 |
|
|
50 - 59% |
0.9264 |
|
|
40 - 49% |
1.2005 |
|
|
< 40% |
1.6408 |
|
creatinine clearance |
< 2.0 mg/dL |
0 |
|
|
>= 2.0 mg/dL |
0.8402 |
|
peripheral vascular disease |
none |
0 |
|
|
any |
0.7494 |
|
congestive heart failure |
none |
0 |
|
|
previous history |
1.1019 |
|
|
present |
1.1019 |
|
preoperative IABP |
none |
0 |
|
|
present |
1.3634 |
|
most severe lesion treated |
A |
0 |
|
|
B |
0 |
|
|
C |
0.6639 |
X =
= SUM(points for all 9 parameters) - 7.6129
probability of in-hospital mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Purpose: To predict the risk of in hospital mortality after a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using the model of O'Connor et al.
Specialty: Cardiology
Objective: risk factors, severity, prognosis, stage, selection
ICD-10: I20, I21, I25, Y84.0,
