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Prediction Model of Janssen et al for Surgical Site Infection After Instrumented Thoracolumbar Spine Surgery in an Adult

Description

Janssen et al reported a model for predicting surgical site infection after instrumented thoracolumbar spine surgery in an adult. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Maastricht University Medical Center in The Netherlands.


Patient selection: adult undergoing instrumented thoracolumbar spine surgery

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter

(3) obesity (BMI > 30)

(4) ASA score from 1 to 4

(5) degenerative disease or revision (diagnosis)

(6) NSAID use

 

Parameter

Finding

Shrunk Coefficients

age

 

0.014 * (age)

BMI

< 25

0

 

25 to 30

-0.631

 

> 30 (obese)

0.510

ASA

 

0.524 * (ASA)

degenerative or revision

no

0

 

yes

-0.578

NSAID use

no

0

 

yes

0.226

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 6 parameters) - 4.159

 

probability of surgical site infection =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.72.


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