Chen et al reported a prediction model for mortality in a patient with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The authors are at Jinhua Municipal Central Hospital in China.
Patient: acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) transfusion of plasma
(3) serum potassium in mmol/L
(4) serum albumin in g/L
(5) plasma D-dimer in µg/L
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.036 * (age)
transfusion of plasma
no
0
yes
1.163
serum potassium
0.779 * (potassium)
serum albumin
-0.089 * (albumin)
D-dimer
0.001 * (D-Dimer)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 7.335
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.85.
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