Ho et al reported the PREDICT nomogram (Predicted Risk, Existing Diseases, and Intensive Care Therapy) to predict long-term survival of a critically-ill patient. The authors are from the University of Western Australia and Royal Perth Hospital in Australia.
Parameters:
(1) age in years (from 20 to 90 years)
(2) predicted mortality (from 10 to 90%)
(3) Charlson comorbidity index (CCI, from 0 to 12)
(4) gender
(5) number of vasopressors days (from 0 to 5)
(6) number of ventilation days (from 0 to 5)
(7) number of hemofiltration days (from 0 to 5)
points for age =
= (1.42 * (age in years)) - 28.19
Predicted Mortality |
Points |
10 to 50% |
(-0.009 * ((predict)^2)) + (1.132 * (predict)) - 10.54 |
50 to 90% |
(0.244 * (predict)) + 11.3 |
points for CCI =
= (6.072 * ((CCI)) - 0.14
Gender |
Points |
female |
0 |
male |
3.5 |
points for vasopressors days =
= (1.41 * (days)) - 0.178
points for ventilator days =
= (3.054 * (days)) - 0.122
points for hemofiltration days =
= (-0.5422 * ((days)^2)) + (5.89 * (days)) - 0.4342
where:
• If vasopressors, ventilator or hemofiltration days exceed 5 days there are 2 options: either cancel the nomogram or set days to 5.
total score =
= SUM(points for all 7 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: around 260
• The higher the score the worse the long-term survival.
Total Score |
5 Year Survival |
< 27 |
> 90% |
27 to 147 |
(-0.003198 * ((score)^2)) - (0.1381 * (points)) + 97.46 |
> 147 |
< 10% |
Specialty: Critical Care, Emergency Medicine
ICD-10: ,