PRE-DELIRIC Prediction Model for Delirium in an ICU Patient

Description

Van den Boogaard et al reported the PRE-DELIRIC (PREdiction of DELIRium in ICu patients) model for predicting delirium in an intensive care unit (ICU) patient. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in the Netherlands.

Patient selection: ICU patient >= 18 years of age

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) APACHE-II score (timing not stated)

(3) coma status

(4) hospital service

(5) infection

(6) metabolic acidosis

(7) 24 hour morphine use (or equivalent)

(8) use of sedatives

(9) serum urea concentration in mmol/L

(10) urgent admission

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years		0.04 * (age)
APACHE II score		0.06 * (APACHE II)
coma	none	0
	drug-induced	0.55
	miscellaneous	2.70
	combination	2.84
hospital service	surgical	0
	medical	0.31
	trauma	1.13
	neurology or neurosurgical	1.38
infection	no	0
	yes	1.05
metabolic acidosis	no	0
	yes	0.29
24 hour morphine use	none	0
	0.01 to 7.1 mg	0.41
	7.2 to 18.6	0.13
	> 18.6	0.51
use of sedatives	no	0
	yes	1.39
serum urea		0.03 * (urea)
urgent admission	no	0
	yes	0.40

X =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 6.31

probability of delirium =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.85.

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PRE-DELIRIC Prediction Model for Delirium in an ICU Patient

Description

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