Postoperative Nomogram of Kattan et al for Predicting Disease-Specific Survival in a Patient With Gastric Carcinoma and No Residual Disease (R0)

Parameters:

(1) gender

(2) age

(3) primary site

(4) Lauren histotype

(5) size

(6) number of positive lymph nodes

(7) number of negative lymph nodes

(8) depth

 

Parameter	Finding	Points
gender	female	0
	male	8.2
primary site	antrum or pylorus (A/P)	0
	proximal or upper third (P/U)	5.1
	body or middle one third (B/M)	8.5
	gastroesophageal junction (GEJ)	26
Lauren histotype	intestinal	0
	mixed	4.2
	diffuse	6.8
depth of invasion	intramucosal (MM)	0
	submucosa (SM)	24.9
	muscularis propria (MP)	49.2
	subserosa (SS)	68.4
	suspected serosal invasion (S1)	78.5
	definite serosal invasion (S2)	83.1
	invasion adjacent organs (S3)	87

 

 

Age in Years	Points
20	14.7
30	10.5
40	6.2
50	2
60	0
70	6.8
80	23.7
90	42.4
100	61

 

If this data is analyzed in JMP:

 

points for 20 to 60 years of age =

= (0.0032143 * ((age)^2)) - (0.636143 * (age)) + 26.34

 

points for 60 to 100 years of age =

= (0.0181429 * ((age)^2)) - (1.3269 * (age)) + 13.185714

 

Size in Centimeters	Points
0 centimeters	0
20 centimeters	6.8

 

points for diameter in cm =

= (0.34 * (diameter in centimeters))

 

Number of Positive Lymph Nodes	Points
0	0
5	43.5
10	55.4
15	59.9
20	64.4
25	68.5
30	73.1
35	77.6
40	81.9
45	86.4
50	91
55	95.5
60	100

 

If this data is analyzed in JMP:

 

points for 0 to 10 positive lymph nodes =

= (0.0322667 * ((number of positive nodes)^3)) - (1.116 * ((number of positive nodes)^2)) + (13.4733 * (number of positive nodes))

 

points for 10 to 60 positive lymph nodes =

= (0.890546 * (number of positive nodes)) + 46.44

 

Number of Negative Lymph Nodes	Points
0	31.6
10	14.7
20	2.6
30	0
40	1.4
50	2.9
60	4.6
70	6.5
80	8.1
90	9.9

 

If this data is analyzed in JMP:

 

points for 0 to 30 negative lymph nodes =

= (0.03575 * ((number of negative nodes)^2)) - (2.1415 * (number of negative nodes)) + 31.835

 

points for 30 to 90 negative lymph nodes =

= (0.16679 * (number of negative nodes)) - 5.2357

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 8 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum total score: 0

• maximum total score: around 210

• The higher the score the worse the disease-specific survival.

 

Score	Probability of 5 Year Disease Specific Survival
17.9	97%
44.1	94%
63.2	90%
90.7	80%
107.4	70%
131.8	50%
151.5	30%
175.4	10%
200.5	1%

 

If this data is analyzed in JMP:

 

probability of 5 year disease-specific survival  with points from 17.9 to 90.7 =

= (-0.002718 * ((points)^2)) + (0.06303 * (points)) + 96.692654

 

probability of 5 year disease-specific survival  with points from 90.7 to 200.5 =

= (0.0000875 * ((points)^3)) - (0.036735 * ((points)^2)) + (4.1479867 * (points)) - 59.59026

 

Score	Probability of 9 Year Disease Specific Survival
10.7	97%
37	94%
56.2	90%
83.5	80%
100.2	70%
124.1	50%
144.4	30%
168.2	10%
193.3	1%

 

where:

• The score for a 9 year disease specific survival is about 7 points below the score giving the same probability of a 5 year disease specific survival.

 

If this data is analyzed in JMP:

 

probability of 9 year disease-specific survival  with points from 0 to 83.5 =

= (-0.002748 * ((points)^2)) + (0.0268094 * (points)) + 96.973067

 

probability of 9 year disease-specific survival  with points from 83.5 to 193.3 =

= (0.0000851 * ((points)^3)) - (0.033784 * ((points)^2)) + (3.484877 * (points)) - 25.17707

 

Performance:

• The original nomogram assumed no additional therapy was given.

• Dikken et al found that the nomogram underestimated survival for patients who received postoperative chemoradiation.