Wilson and Weissfeld developed a simple model for predicting the risk of lung cancer being detected following a lung cancer screen. The authors are from the University of Pittsburgh.
Patient: current or former cigarette smoker
Parameters:
(1) duration of smoking in years
(2) smoking intensity
(3) smoking status
(4) age relative to cutoff based on years of smoking
Parameter
Finding
Points
duration of smoking
< 30 years
-10
30 to 39 years
0
40 to 49 years
8
>= 50 years
14
smoking intensity
< 20 cigarettes per day
-4
20 to 29
0
30 to 39
2
>= 40 cigarettes per day
5
smoking status
former
-3
current
3
Years of Smoking
Older if
Points
< 30 years
>= 57 years old
4 if older, 0 if younger
30 to 39 years
>= 59 years old
4 if older, 0 if younger
40 to 49 years
>= 61 years old
4 if older, 0 if younger
>= 50 years
>= 68 years old
4 if older, 0 if younger
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -17
• maximum score: 23
• The higher the score the greater the risk of lung cancer.
Score
Risk Level
<= 0
1
1 to 8
2
9 to 14
3
15 to 23
4
X =
= (0.1 * (score)) – (4.0641 if had low dose CT, 4.2195 if had chest X-ray)
6-year lung cancer risk =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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