Patient selection: pediatric patient on ECMO
Outcome: mortality
Parameters:
(1) pH
(2) PaCO2 in mm Hg
(3) number of hours between admission and ECMO started
(4) number of hours between intubation and ECMO started
(5) ventilation (conventional mechanical, high frequency oscillatory ventilation/HFOV)
(6) mean airway pressure (MAP) in cm H2O (most abnormal value in 6 hours prior to ECMO)
(7) malignancy
(8) primary diagnosis (pertussis, asthma, bronchiolitis, other)
(9) milrinone therapy prior to ECMO support
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
pH
|
|
-2.171 * (pH)
|
|
PaCO2
|
|
-0.006 * (PaCO2)
|
|
hours from admission
|
|
0.102 * LN((hours)+1)
|
|
hours from intubation
|
|
0.150 * LN((hours) + 1)
|
|
ventilation
|
conventional
|
-0.463
|
|
|
HFOV
|
-0.890
|
|
|
other
|
0
|
|
MAP
|
conventional ventilation
|
0.023 * (MAP)
|
|
|
HFOV
|
0.031 * (MAP)
|
|
|
other
|
0
|
|
malignancy
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.415
|
|
primary diagnosis
|
pertussis
|
0.959
|
|
|
asthma
|
-0.665
|
|
|
bronchiolitis
|
-0.788
|
|
|
other
|
0
|
|
milrinone therapy
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.313
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all 9 parameters) + 14.70
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (total score)))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve for the developmental set was 0.69.
• The area under the ROC curve for the validation set was 0.63.
