Fitzgerald et al reported a predictive score for a pediatric patient with possible Ebola fever. The authors are from multiple institutions in Europe and Sierra Leone.
Patient: pediatric patient with possible Ebola fever
Parameters:
(1) positive contact with an Ebola patient
(2) conjunctivitis
(3) age of the patient in years
(4) fever
(5) anorexia
(6) sex
(7) abdominal pain
(8) diarrhea
(9) difficulty breathing
(10) difficulty swallowing
(11) headache
(12) rash
Parameter
Finding
Points
positive contact
no
0
yes
2
conjunctivitis
no
0
yes
2
age
< 2 years of age
0
>= 2 years of age
2
fever
no
0
yes
1
anorexia
no
0
yes
1
sex
female
0
male
1
abdominal pain
no
0
yes
1
diarrhea
no
0
yes
1
difficulty breathing
no
0
yes
-1
difficulty swallowing
no
0
yes
-1
headache
no
0
yes
-1
rash
no
0
yes
-2
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -5
• maximum score: 11
• A score >= 3 has a 94% sensitivity and 30% specificity.
• A score >= 7 has a sensitivity of 44% and 92% specificity.
Performance:
• The area under the curve is 0.80.
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