Wierer et al reported a model for predicting recurrent lateral patellar dislocation. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in Austria and Germany.
Patient seleciton: history of primary lateral patellar dislocation
Parameters:
(1) age in years at index dislocation
(2) contralateral instability
(3) lateral trochlear inclination in degrees (range in study 11 to 24 degrees)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
-0.1 * (age)
contralateral instability
no
0
yes
0.7
lateral trochlear inclination
-0.1 * (degrees)
value of X =
= SUM(points for the 3 parameters) + 3.5
patellar instability probability =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.71.
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