Original Risk Score of Ferguson et al for Pulmonary Complications Following Esophagectomy for Cancer

Description

In 2002 Ferguson et al developed a risk score for pulmonary complications following esophagectomy performed for cancer. The score was based on preoperative findings which allows for making adjustments to management decisions. The authors are from the University of Chicago.

Patient selection: esophagectomy for cancer

Outcome: pulmonary complications (reintubation, pneumonia)

Parameters:

(1) age in years, adjusted for decade over 50 years of age

(2) FEV1 as percent of predicted

(3) ECOG performance status

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years	<= 50 years	0
	51 to 60 years	1
	61 to 70 years	2
	71 to 80 years	3
	> 80 years	4
FEV1 as percent of predicted	>= 90%	0
	80 to 89.9%	1
	70 to 79.9%	2
	60 to 69.9%	3
	< 60%	4
ECOG performance status	0 or 1	0
	2 or more	1

where:

• The scoring of the ECOG performance status is not clearly specified. The scoring here is based on data in Table 1.

total score =

= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 9

• A score >= 4 was associated with an increased risk of pulmonary complications.

Score	Pulmonary Complications	Cardiovascular Complications	Cardiopulmonary Complications
0 or 1	10%	21%	21%
2 or 3	23%	32%	42%
4 or 5	30%	40%	45%
6 or 7	42%	51%	62%
8 or 9	50%	80%	90%=

Performance:

• A score >= 4 had an accuracy for predicting pulmonary complications of 65%.

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Original Risk Score of Ferguson et al for Pulmonary Complications Following Esophagectomy for Cancer

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