Zhang et al reported two nomograms for evaluating a patient with colorectal cancer that has been resected without pre-operative therapy. One model predicts cancer-specific survival. The authors are from Shangai East Hospital and Tongji University Hospital in China.
Patient selection: colorectal cancer, status post resection, age from 10 to 100 years, without preoperative therapy
Parameters:
(1) size in cm
(2) sex
(3) site
(4) marital status
(5) extent of surgery
(6) histologic grade
(7) lymph node count (LNC)
(8) histologic type
(9) race
(10) CEA status
(11) lymph node ratio
(12) metastases (M status)
(13) depth of invasion (T status)
(14) age in years
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
size |
<= 5 cm |
0 |
|
|
> 5 cm |
1.8 |
|
|
unknown |
7.8 |
|
sex |
female |
0 |
|
|
male |
7.8 |
|
site |
descending colon |
0 |
|
|
proximal colon (cecum to sigmoid flexion) |
5.7 |
|
|
rectum |
5.7 |
|
|
overlapping |
10.6 |
|
marital status |
married |
0 |
|
|
widowed |
9.9 |
|
|
divorced |
9.2 |
|
|
single |
12.1 |
|
|
unknown |
0.7 |
|
extent of surgery |
local or segmental |
0 |
|
|
partial colectomy |
3.5 |
|
|
total colectomy |
13.5 |
|
histologic grade |
G1 or G2 |
0 |
|
|
G3 or G4 |
14.2 |
|
|
unknown |
7.4 |
|
histologic type |
adenocarcinoma |
0 |
|
|
signet ring cell |
19.1 |
|
race |
yellow |
0 |
|
|
white |
13.8 |
|
|
black |
24.1 |
|
|
other |
15.6 |
|
CEA status |
negative |
0 |
|
|
positive |
26.2 |
|
metastases |
negative (M0) |
0 |
|
|
positive (M1) |
79.4 |
|
depth of invasion |
T1 |
0 |
|
|
T2 |
25.2 |
|
|
T3 |
61.3 |
|
|
T4a |
84.4 |
|
|
T4b |
88.3 |
|
Age in Years |
Points |
|
10 to 40 |
(0.1182 * (age)) - 1.1817 |
|
40 to 60 |
(0.3545 * (age)) - 10.635 |
|
60 to 100 |
(0.02364 * ((score)^2)) - (1.505 * (score)) + 14.93 |
|
Lymph Node Count |
Points |
|
0 to 30 |
(0.002659 * ((count)^2)) - (0.5938 * (count)) + 15.15 |
|
30 to 90 |
(0.2954 * (count)) - 8.8625 |
points for lymph node ratio =
= (0.00007335 * ((ratio)^3)) - (0.0196 * ((ratio)^2)) + (1.942 * (ratio)) - 0.6525
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the findings)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 412.5
|
Total Score |
5-Year Cancer Specific Survival |
|
< 63.8 |
> 95% |
|
63.8 to 315.9 |
X = (-0.00000054956 * ((score)^3)) + (0.00023311 * ((score)^2)) - (0.050049 * (score)) + 5.3857; probability = 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X)) |
|
> 315.9 |
< 1% |
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology
