Nomograms of Li et al for Survival in a Patient with Advanced Schistosomiasis: 2-Year Overall Survival

Description

Li et al reported nomograms for predicting survival for a patient with advanced schistosomiasis. One nomogram is for 2-year overall survival, and one is for 2-year advanced schistosomiasis -specific survival. The authors are from Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan.

Patient selection: advanced Sch. japonicum schistosomiasis with cirrhosis and portal hypertension

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) clinical classification

(3) serum direct bilirubin

(4) serum AST

(5) serum ALP

(6) serum HBsAg

points for age =

= (1.25* (age)) - 25

Parameter	Finding	Points
clinical classification	ascites	0
	splenomegaly	10.8
serum dorect bilirubin	normal	0
	abnormal	17.3
serum AST	normal	0
	abnormal	10.7
serum ALP	normal	0
	abnormal	10.5
serum HBsAg	negative	0
	positive	13.5

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 162.8

value of X =

= (-0.0002911 * ((score)^2)) - (0.008779 * (score)) + 4.761

probability of 2-year overall survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.81.

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Nomograms of Li et al for Survival in a Patient with Advanced Schistosomiasis: 2-Year Overall Survival

Description

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