Fu et al reported nomograms for evaluating a patient with hepatocellular carcinoma and without portal vein tumor thrombosis after curative resection. One nomogram estimates recurrence-free survival (RFS). The authors are from Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University and Central South University at Changsha in China.
Patient selection: hepatocellular carcinoma without portal vein tumor thrombosis status post curative resection
Outcome: recurrence-free survival at 3 years
Parameters:
(1) log serum AFP in ng/mL from 0 to 5, presumably LOG10
(2) tumor size in cm (from 0 to 24 cm)
(3) number of tumors (from 1 to 7)
(4) serum GGT in U/L
(5) microscopic vascular invasion (MVI)
(6) liver cirrhosis
points for serum AFP =
= MIN(2.25,0.4494 * LOG10(AFP))
points for tumor size in cm =
=MIN(6.52,0.2715*(size))
points for number of tumors =
= MIN(10,(1.667 * ((number)-1))
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
serum GGT
|
<= 60 U/L
|
0
|
|
|
> 60 U/L
|
1.46
|
|
microscopic vascular invasion
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
2.58
|
|
liver cirrhosis
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
1.46
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 33.8
• The higher the score the worse the recurrence-free survival.
|
Score
|
3-Year Recurrence Free Survival
|
|
< 0.69
|
> 80%
|
|
0.692 to 7.49
|
(-0.3226 * ((score)^2)) - (3.249 * (score)) + 82.42
|
|
7.49 to 15.32
|
(0.4995 * ((score)^2)) - (16.43 * (score)) + 135.3
|
|
> 15.32
|
< 1%
|
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.67.
