Fakhry et al reported 2 nomograms for predicting outcomes for a patient with oropharyngeal cancer. One model predicts overall survival. The authors are from Johns Hopkins University.
Patient selection: oropharyngeal cancer, ECOG 0 or 1
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) number of pack years for cigarette smoking
(3) p16 status
(4) T stage (T2, T3, T4)
(5) N stage (AJCC 8th edition)
(6) Zubrod/ECOG performance status (0 or 1)
(7) education
(8) anemia
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
age and pack years |
<= 50 years old and <= 10 pack years |
0 |
|
> 50 years old and <= 10 pack years |
88.6 |
|
<= 50 years old and > 10 pack years |
78.2 |
|
> 50 years old and > 10 pack years |
100 |
p16 status |
positive |
0 |
|
negative |
41 |
T stage |
T2 or T3 |
0 |
|
T4 |
30.2 |
N stage |
N0 or N1 |
0 |
|
N2 or N3 |
28 |
Zubrod PS |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
23.8 |
education |
high school or less |
27.7 |
|
post high school |
0 |
anemia |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
18.8 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 358
• The higher the score the worse the overall survival.
value of X =
= (-0.00000079298 * ((score)^3)) + (0.00028459 * ((score)^2)) - (0.053445 * (score)) + 5.1009
probability of 5-year overall survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1)*X))
Specialty: Hematology Oncology