Description

Fakhry et al reported 2 nomograms for predicting outcomes for a patient with oropharyngeal cancer. One model predicts overall survival. The authors are from Johns Hopkins University.


Patient selection: oropharyngeal cancer, ECOG 0 or 1

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) number of pack years for cigarette smoking

(3) p16 status

(4) T stage (T2, T3, T4)

(5) N stage (AJCC 8th edition)

(6) Zubrod/ECOG performance status (0 or 1)

(7) education

(8) anemia

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age and pack years

<= 50 years old and <= 10 pack years

0

 

> 50 years old and <= 10 pack years

88.6

 

<= 50 years old and > 10 pack years

78.2

 

> 50 years old and > 10 pack years

100

p16 status

positive

0

 

negative

41

T stage

T2 or T3

0

 

T4

30.2

N stage

N0 or N1

0

 

N2 or N3

28

Zubrod PS

0

0

 

1

23.8

education

high school or less

27.7

 

post high school

0

anemia

no

0

 

yes

18.8

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 358

• The higher the score the worse the overall survival.

 

value of X =

= (-0.00000079298 * ((score)^3)) + (0.00028459 * ((score)^2)) - (0.053445 * (score)) + 5.1009

 

probability of 5-year overall survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1)*X))


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