Nomogram of Zhao et al for Predicting the Risk of Injurious Falls for an Elderly Adult

Description

Zhao et al reported a model for predicting the risk of injuries falls for an elderly adult. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from preventive interventions. The authors are from Fudan University, Huashan Hospital and Zhejiang University in China.

Patient selection: elderly adult, presumably >= 65 years

Parameters:

(1) orthostatic hypotension

(2) history of fractures

(3) functional status

(4) sedative hypnotic therapy

(5) serum albumin (cutoffs not defined)

Parameter	Finding	Points
orthostatic hypotension	no	0
	yes	62.7
history of fracture	no	0
	yes	68.3
functional status	independent	0
	partially dependent	15
	completely dependent	77.7
sedative/hypnotic therapy	no	0
	yes	84.3
serum albumin	normal or high	0
	low	100

total score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 393

• The higher the score the greater the risk of injurious falls.

value of X =

= (0.02566 * (score)) - 4.16

Score	Percent with Injurious Falls
< 55	< 6%
55 to 286	= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
> 286	> 96%

Performance:

• The areas under the ROC curve is 0.87.

To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.

Nomogram of Zhao et al for Predicting the Risk of Injurious Falls for an Elderly Adult

Description

Specialty