Zhao et al reported a nomogram for predicting syphilis in a male who has sex with men (MSM). The authors are from Guangong Provincial Key Laboratory for Tropical Disease Research, Southern Medical University, New South Wales University and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory.
Patient selection: male who has sex with men (MSM)
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) main venue for seeking sexual partners
(3) consistent condom use with men in the past 6 months
(4) commercial sex with men in the past 6 months
(5) sexually-transmitted disease in the past year
Parameter
Finding
Points
age
<= 25 years
0
26 to 35 years
9
36 to 45 years
20.3
> 45 years
27.2
main venue for partners
internet
0
other
100
condom use
no
14.9
yes
0
commercial sex
no
0
yes
38.7
STD in past year
no
0
yes
69.3
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 250.1
value of X =
= (0.02355 * (score)) - 3.562
probability of syphilis =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.80.
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