Description

Yuan et al reported a nomogram which can help to predict the risk of stroke recurrence in a young adult. The authors are from Nanjing Medical University, University of Science and Technology of China, Jinling Hospital, Southern Medical University and the 80th Group Army Hospital of The People's Liberation Army (Weifang) in China.


Patient selection: adult 18 to 49 years with first-ever ischemic stroke

 

Parameters:

(1) hypertension

(2) diabetes mellitus

(3) smoking status

(4) years of education

(5) stroke etiology

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

hypertension

absent

0

 

present

28

diabetes mellitus

absent

0

 

present

43.6

smoking status

nonsmoker

0

 

former smoker

13.7

 

current smoker

39.8

education

0 to 6

100

 

6 to 9

44.5

 

9 to 12

58.5

 

> 12

0

stroke etiology

small-vessel occlusion

0

 

large artery atherosclerosis

43.2

 

cardiac embolism

58.2

 

other determined disease

18.5

 

undetermined cause

38.6

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: 0

maximum score: 269.9

The higher the score the greater the risk of stroke recurrence (the lower the chances of being stroke free).

 

Total Score

Free of Stroke Recurrence at 6-Years

<86.4

> 95%

86.4 to 171.6

X = 5.536 - (0.02971 * (score))

probability = 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

171.6 to 236.4

Y = (-0.0003659 * ((score)^2)) + (0.09878 * (score)) - 5.805

probability = 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Y))

> 236.4

< 5%

 


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