Yin et al report a nomogram for predicting hepatic encephalopathy in a cirrhotic patient after placement of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). The authors are from Nanjing Medical University in China.
Patient selection: cirrhotic patient after TIPS placement
Outcome: 1-year hepatic encephalopathy free survival (HEFS)
Parameters:
(1) age in years from 20 to 85 years
(2) Child Turcotte Pugh Class
(3) diabetes mellitus
(4) serum sodium from 120 to 155 mmol/L
(5) serum creatinine from 10 to 150 µmol/L
points for age =
= (1.173846 * (age)) - 23.476923
points for serum sodium =
= 442.85714 - (2.857143 * (sodium))
points for serum creatinine =
= (0.575 * (creatinine)) - 5.75
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
Child Turcotte Pugh class
|
A
|
0
|
|
|
B
|
37.6
|
|
|
C
|
77.3
|
|
diabetes mellitus
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
25.5
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 359.6
value of X =
= (-0.00012429 * ((score)^2)) + (0.010096 * (score)) + 2.6964
probability of 1-year hepatic encephalopathy free survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.77.
