Patient selection: Crohn's disease, within 1 year of initial diagnosis
Outcome: complications requiring surgery (severe GI bleeding, stenosis, perforations, etc)
Parameters:
(1) disease duration in years, from 0 to 11
(2) age in years, from 5 to 65 years
(3) perianal disease
(4) history of previous surgery
(5) extraintestinal manifestations (EIM)
points for disease duration =
= (9.0909 * (years))
points for age =
= 53.95 - (0.83 * (age))
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
perianal disease
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
25.6
|
|
previous surgery
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
12.1
|
|
extraintestinal manifestations
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
18.9
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 206.4
value of X =
= (0.1081 * (score)) - 9.802
|
Score
|
1-Year Risk of Complications
|
|
< 27.3
|
< 0.1%
|
|
27.3 to 154.7
|
1/(1 + EXP((-1) * X))
|
|
> 154.7
|
> 99.9%
|
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is reported to be 0.97 (sensitivity 97% and specificity 88%).
