Yan et al reported a nomogram for predicting progression of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) for a patient undergoing elective spinal surgery. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Wenzhou Medical University and affiliated hospitals.
Patient selection: patient after elective spinal surgery with a preoperative deep vein thrombosis
Parameters:
(1) D-dimer concentration in mg/L (normal reference range not stated)
(2) varicosities in the lower extremities
(3) hyperlipidemia
(4) paralysis of the lower extremity
(5) operation time in hours
Parameter
Finding
Points
D-dimer concentration
< 1.5 mg/L
0
>= 1.5 mg/L
53.4
varicosities
no
0
yes
28.7
hyperlipidemia
no
0
yes
39.2
paralysis
none
0
incomplete
11.1
complete
36.7
operation time
< 2 hours
0
2 to 2.99 hours
37.4
>= 3 hours
100
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 258
value of X =
= (0.02401 * (score)) - 3.154
probability of DVT progression =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.81.
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