Xu et al reported a model for predicting esophageal fistula in a patient with esophageal cancer following radiation therapy. The authors are from Shandong First Medical University in China.
Patient selection: esophageal cancer
Parameters:
(1) ECOG performance status
(2) body mass index in kg per square meter
(3) T status
(4) N status
(5) re-radiotherapy
Parameter
Finding
Points
ECOG
0 to 2
0
3 or 4
66.6
BMI
< 18.5
0
18.5 to 23.9
33.3
24 to 27.9
66.7
>= 28
100
T status
T1 to T3
0
T4
31.3
N status
N0 or N1
0
N2 or N3
38.5
re-radiotherapy
no
0
yes
76.3
total score =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 312.7
X =
= (0.02699 * (score)) - 3.478
probability of a fistula =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.81.
To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.
