Wu et al reported a nomogram for predicting short-term survival for a patient with acute liver failure associated with Hepatitis E virus (HEV). The authors are from multiple institutions in China.
Patient selection: HEV with acute liver failure
Parameters:
(1) urea in mmol/L, from 0 to 26
(2) neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), from 0 to 24
(3) serum GGT in U/L, from 0 to 700
(4) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L, from 0 to 900
(5) INR, from 0.5 to 7.5
(6) serum albumin in g/L, from 10 to 45
(7) serum creatinine in µmol/L, from 0 to 600
points for urea =
= 3.1269 * (urea)
points for NLR =
= (1.916667 * (NLR))
points for GGT =
= 63.8 - (0.0911429 * (GGT))
points for total serum bilirubin =
= 41.1 - (0.0456667 * (bilirubin))
points for INR =
= (14.2857 * (INR)) - 7.1428
points for serum albumin =
= 61.5857 - (1.36857 * (albumin))
points for creatinine =
= 62.8 - (0.104667 * (creatinine))
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 442.9
|
Score
|
Value of X
|
|
128.1 to 185.3
|
X1 = (-0.0001617 * ((score)^2)) + (0.01165 * (score)) + 2.547
|
|
185.3 to 206.7
|
X2 = (-0.063 * (score)) + 10.82
|
|
206.7 to 229.9
|
X3 = (-0.1035 * (score)) + 19.2
|
|
Score
|
28-Day Survival
|
|
< 128.1
|
> 80%
|
|
1281. to 185.3
|
1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X1))
|
|
185.3 to 206.7
|
1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X2))
|
|
207.7 to 229.9
|
1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X3))
|
|
> 229.9
|
< 1%
|
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.67.
