Description

Wang et al reported a nomogram for predicting severe kidney disease in a child with Henoch-Schonlein purpura. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Sichuan University and affiliated hospitals in China.


Patient selection: pediatric patient with Henoch-Schonlein purpura

 

Parameters:

(1) skin manifestations

(2) gastrointestinal manifestations

(3) recurrent symptoms

(4) renal involvement

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

skin manifestations

no

0

 

yes

19.3

GI manifestations

no

0

 

yes

21.6

recurrent symptoms

no

0

 

yes

40

renal involvement

no

0

 

yes

100

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 180.9

 

value of X =

= * (score))

 

probability of severe kidney disease within 12 months =

= (-0.00001 * ((score)^2)) + (0.006811 * (score)) - 0.02846

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.75.


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